If Mike Rogers pulls off a win in the Michigan Senate race, Abdul El-Sayed becomes the first Muslim U.S. senator ever. The numbers from NYT/Siena show El-Sayed at 53% and Rogers at 42%, with a margin of error of ±3.8 percentage points. Betting markets are close to those figures: Polymarket gives Rogers a 23% shot while Kalshi lines up at 24%. Early voting has already hit 2,313,165 ballots cast. Voting ends at 8 PM ET for most of the state, though folks in the U.P. stay open until 9 PM ET.